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    111 E. Wisconsin Avenue
    Suite 1310
    Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202


Our take on recent noteworthy items

Economic update—Peak Worries?

Adding the Fed biz-cycle indicator to our toolkit

Is this as good as it gets for investors? Are we near business cycle peaks in the economy and corporate earnings? Is it all downhill from here towards recession and a “bear market” in stocks? Our assessment of the fundamentals underlying the economy and corporate earnings suggest...

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A Bit about Bitcoin

It’s a global currency…it’s digital cash…it’s digital gold… it’s a world-changing technology...it’s a great investment (or is it?). It’s Bitcoin! The spectacular rises in the prices of Bitcoin and other “cryptocurrencies” are attracting attention reminiscent (to some) of the pet rock craze of the 1970s or (to others) the tulip mania craze of the 1630s...

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Framing the 2016 stock market . . . two months in

February 2016

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The start to 2016 has been frustrating for investors to say the least. Even though we’re only two months into the year, stocks have been under selling pressure over much of this time. Similar to the sharp selloff that occurred from mid-August to early November last year, investors' concerns have been mainly focused on markets and economies...

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December 2015 ISM

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While the doom and gloom crowd are out in full force with the turn of the calendar, don’t fear the reaper for the domestic economic expansion quite yet. December’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was again below the level (50) which is consistent with manufacturing activity detracting from overall economic growth. But a domestic recession is not likely in the cards anytime soon...

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October 2015 ISM

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Manufacturing conditions stabilized last month as the sharp fall in commodity prices continues to work its way through the economy. Inventory levels remain mixed with some reported as a bit “too high” and others as “too low”. Most importantly, however, the leading indicator within the Purchasing Managers’ Report (PMI)—New Orders—is providing readings that strongly suggest any remaining inventory overhangs should be worked off in short order.

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September 2015 ISM

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Today’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) release contained few surprises. It simply confirms the primary U.S. economic trends that have been in place for some time: the economic expansion continues, and its pace remains slow (+2% real GDP growth) relative to past expansions and the economy’s likely underlying potential. The best leading indicator within the report (new orders) has certainly cooled from higher levels a few months ago, but signals the continuation of the expansion.

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