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Yearly Archives: 2018

Low Bar

Fourth Quarter 2018

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Can the economic expansion and the associated uptrend in corporate earnings again prove resilient? We believe the answer is “yes”. To be clear, we are not saying the issues of today are not of concern, or that everything is fine and dandy. Recent events and market mayhem churn our guts too. But a dispassionate assessment of the current situation and the underlying fundamentals...

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Are We There Yet?

Third Quarter 2018

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In just a few months the present economic expansion will likely go down in the record books as the longest in U.S. history so far. Like the proverbial annoying question during family travel—Are we there yet?—this business cycle expansion has been hounded nearly every inch of the way by repeated prognostications that its end is just ahead...

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The Picture Within the Picture

Second Quarter 2018

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In his book, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker argues that the nature of the media and the way people process information may result in distorted views of the world around us. He points out that the media’s primary objective is attracting viewer attention. Their “if it bleeds, it leads” mode certainly attracts attention...

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Economic update—Peak Worries?

Adding the Fed biz-cycle indicator to our toolkit

Is this as good as it gets for investors? Are we near business cycle peaks in the economy and corporate earnings? Is it all downhill from here towards recession and a “bear market” in stocks? Our assessment of the fundamentals underlying the economy and corporate earnings suggest...

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The Wall

First Quarter 2018

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Each day Wall Street tallies the number and dollar value of investment securities traded on the financial exchanges. But what Wall Street is really good at is trading insecurities. “How many insecurities traded today?” From Election Day 2016 through the first few weeks of this year, the U.S. stock market displayed very little downside volatility. There were numerous “insecurities” traded along the way, but the market climbed the wall of worries and...

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